Microblog #46, "Why We Make Mistakes, Chapters 6&7"

6
Summary
This chapter covers how frames of mind influence decisions, especially potential losses vs. potential gains.

Discussion
I am flatly insulted by the insinuating that The Piano is somehow a "better" movie than a classic like Clear and Present Danger. It's not quite Hunt For Red October, but come on!

The phenomena with NFL coaches is well documented, but I strongly doubt that it has anything to do with not knowing the odds. Among people who know anything about the situation (as opposed to this Hallinan character, who saw some numbers that might possibly be construed as supporting some point he wanted to make) many explanations have been offered for this behavior, and "not understanding the risks" isn't one of them.

The first, most obvious, and most often cited theory is that the coaches are playing the odds correctly...just not the team's odds. The way fans and the media perceive games, if a coach goes for it and fails it is his fault, but if he kicks instead and something goes wrong it's the kicker that catches heat. Thus, a conservative coach protects his own job security at the expense of the kicker and the team. A form of yellow-bellied moral cowardice to be sure, but not irrational in the way Hallinan implies. (Rather, he's close but has the locus on the coach when it should be on the less-football smart individuals who still have influence. This includes the ticket buying public).

Second theory says that the current decision making paradigm was optimal for the 60s and 70s when these coaches learned the game, and they just haven't caught up with the times. The third is that coaches worry that they concede "momentum" when they go for it and fail, but not when they punt. It's irrational no matter what (unless case 1 is assumed) but he has the particulars wrong.

7
Summary
This brief chapter covers how people put together information from the context, and so experts often miss errors that novices catch because they don't know the context well enough to make inferences.

Discussion
Good examples to illustrate the point, although are we sure the suicide isn't a urban legend?