Summary
This chapter discusses overconfidence, how it leads to errors, and how it is exploited by businesses.
Discussion
Your calculation of the odds may be off due to overconfidence, but it's telling that all five guys who thought they would shoot badly did. And wasn't this book whining just a chapter or two ago about the collective cowardice of professional football coaches? I think the point he's making here isn't as strong as he thinks it is.
11
Summary
This chapter is all about the perceived extent of and problems with winging it.
Discussion
The examples here (especially the bomb and the ball) are a serious step down from previous chapters. Here, the author is oversimplifying complex situations in order to make his point, and as a result not making it as well as he thinks he is.
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